Early reads on where the electorate is heading, while there is still road left to change the route. Polling toplines, electorate analysis and capability notes, newest first.
GENERAL POLL
Hobbs leads Biggs 43-38, Mayes leads Petersen 41-38, and Fontes leads Kolodin 39-38 - yet Republicans lead every contest without a Democratic incumbent, from Treasurer to the Corporation Commission, in an electorate that recalls voting Trump +6.
Read briefingCAPABILITIES
A self-funded demonstration of our pipeline: how a complete statewide poll becomes campaign strategy in 72 hours - the Topline, Thermal Crosstabs, and Index Deck behind a June 2026 Arizona Attorney General survey, start to finish.
Read briefingPRIMARY POLL
Incumbent Tom Horne leads State Treasurer Kimberly Yee 40% to 27%, with only 33% of GOP primary voters undecided - the lowest undecided pool of any down-ballot primary in the study, and the only one where both candidates are already known statewide officeholders.
Read briefingANALYSIS
Border (30%), inflation (26%), and election integrity (18%) lead the AZGOP primary agenda - but each top issue is owned by a different ideological segment of the party, and no single message reaches all three.
Read briefingPRIMARY POLL
State Rep. Alex Kolodin opens an 11-point lead - 21% to Swoboda's 10% - winning all nine of Arizona's congressional districts and every high-intensity faction of the GOP primary electorate by better than 2-to-1.
Read briefingANALYSIS
Synthesizing three statewide polls: the AZGOP enters 2026 consolidated at the top of the ticket, loyal to the eventual nominee in November, and without the factional mobilization that defined 2022.
Read briefingPRIMARY POLL
The sleepiest race on the ballot: Haley 15%, Norton 13%, and 71% of likely GOP primary voters still undecided - the deepest undecided pool of any 2026 statewide primary.
Read briefingPRIMARY POLL
A wide-open name-ID race: Petersen 23%, Glassman 21%, with 56% of likely GOP primary voters still undecided - topline from a May 13–15 statewide survey.
Read briefingPRIMARY POLL
Congressman Andy Biggs leads the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary by 46 points - 55% to Schweikert's 9% - in a May 13–15 statewide survey of likely GOP primary voters.
Read briefingPRIMARY POLL
A look at the July Republican primary electorate - topline results and cross-tabs from a May 13–15 statewide survey.
Read briefingFOUNDER'S LETTER
Founder Derek Weech on the gap between gathering quality data and making it useful, and the pipeline we built to close it.
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